Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T01:34:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FD 0xfd83…597e sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$102 (+40%) realized +$123 · open −$21

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +247% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +201% what you keep after slip

Net edge+201%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day7.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$369now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+213.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+246.7%	+213.7%	100%	100%	+213.0%
≤30d	3	+246.7%	+213.7%	100%	100%	+213.0%
≤90d	3	+246.7%	+213.7%	100%	100%	+213.0%
all	3	+246.7%	+213.7%	100%	100%	+213.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover7.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+213.7%	100%	+213.0%
10%	+183.6%	100%	+183.0%
15%	+156.2%	100%	+155.7%
20%	+131.1%	100%	+130.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 74% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +246% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +247% · $-wt +246% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$114 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$369

Realized+$123

Unrealized−$21

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day7.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	Over	24¢	14¢	$47	$26	−$21 (-44%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	Yes	29¢	28¢	$26	$25	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	Jun 29	$50	+$150	+300%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 29	$81	+$103	+127%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$50	+$90	+181%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Netherlands vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	24¢	$48	1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$26	1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	BUY Paraguay	25¢	$50	3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	56¢	$66	3h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$81	4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	26¢	$140	4h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	9¢	$50	5h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $369.01 · official $369.02 (match) · 8 history records