Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:34:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfd82…6a10 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$90 (+5%) realized +$25 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate52%11W / 10L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$988now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +46.2% +32.3% 52% 43% -6.2%
≤30d 21 +46.2% +32.3% 52% 43% -6.2%
≤90d 21 +46.2% +32.3% 52% 43% -6.2%
all 21 +46.2% +32.3% 52% 43% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +32.3% 43% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here +19.6% 24% -15.1%
15% +8.1% 14% -23.3%
20% -2.5% 14% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +96% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$988
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses11 / 10
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions16
Markets (closed)21 / 37
History coverage1d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan Aoyama/Chan 57¢ 52¢ $100 $92 −$8 (-8%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ 100¢ $50 $88 +$38 (+75%)
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ 50¢ $50 $75 +$25 (+50%)
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) G2 50¢ 55¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder Eva Marie Voracek 81¢ 86¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ 59¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+5%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ 94¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ 83¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Brandon Nakashima 71¢ 72¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura Hyeon Chung 50¢ 50¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Odeta Panasa vs Ana Giraldi Requena Odeta Panasa 55¢ 55¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova Karine Sarkisova 81¢ 80¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li Varvara Panshina 89¢ 87¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 51¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 55¢ 50¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-9%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs G2 24¢ 26¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 17 $50 +$15 +31%
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi Jun 17 $50 +$13 +26%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $50 +$4 +7%
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$9 -18%
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri Jun 16 $51 −$2 -3%
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 +$81 +158%
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) Jun 16 $51 −$1 -2%
Royan: Daniel Jade vs Michael Zhu Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 16 $51 −$11 -22%
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez Jun 16 $50 +$9 +17%
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka Jun 16 $51 +$56 +109%
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai Jun 16 $50 +$8 +16%
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Hyu Kawanishi Jun 16 $50 +$4 +8%
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Set Handicap: Zhu (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5) Jun 16 $46 −$45 -98%
ITF Tauste: Belle Thompson vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 16 $9 +$103 +1116%
Poznan: Florian Broska vs Lukas Neumayer Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 33¢ $51 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Varvara Panshina vs Yuyao Li BUY Varvara Panshina 89¢ $50 1h
ITF Zhengzhou: Qiu Yu Ye vs Le Yi Liu BUY Le Yi Liu 43¢ $51 2h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rina Saigo vs Tiana Tian Deng BUY Tiana Tian Deng 57¢ $51 2h
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kaan Isik Kosaner BUY Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar 56¢ $51 3h
ITF Taipei: Hiromi Abe vs Ikumi Yamazaki BUY Hiromi Abe 76¢ $50 4h
ITF Sapporo: Eunchae Kim vs Sae Noguchi BUY Sae Noguchi 79¢ $50 11h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 71¢ $50 13h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 13h
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Chong/Kempen vs Aoyama/Chan BUY Aoyama/Chan 57¢ $51 13h
Dublin: Rio Noguchi vs Clement Tabur BUY Rio Noguchi 44¢ $51 15h
ITF Dinard: Laetitia Sarrazin vs Monika Wojcik BUY Laetitia Sarrazin 80¢ $50 17h
Set Handicap: Oz (-1.5) vs Pieri (+1.5) BUY Pieri 51¢ $51 17h
ITF Blois: Ipek Oz vs Jessica Pieri BUY Ipek Oz 51¢ $51 17h
Ipek Oz vs. Jessica Pieri: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 60¢ $51 17h
Set Handicap: Ruiz (-1.5) vs Valdez (+1.5) BUY Ruiz 51¢ $51 18h
ITF Tauste: Yleymi Lugiana Muelle Valdez vs Celia Cervino Ruiz BUY Celia Cervino Ruiz 64¢ $51 20h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Milica Stosovic vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 90¢ $50 22h
ITF Tauste: Elena Milovanovic vs Claudia Ferrer Perez BUY Elena Milovanovic 85¢ $50 22h
ITF Zhengzhou: Rinko Matsuda vs Ekaterina Maklakova BUY Ekaterina Maklakova 59¢ $51 22h
ITF Maanshan: Chase Ferguson vs Taiyo Yamanaka BUY Taiyo Yamanaka 47¢ $51 23h
ITF Maanshan: Tianhui Zhang vs Shintaro Imai BUY Shintaro Imai 86¢ $50 23h
Mao Mushika vs. Yu-Chen Lin: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 51¢ $51 24h
Set Handicap: Rehberg (-1.5) vs Olivieri (+1.5) BUY Olivieri 38¢ $51 24h
ITF Taipei: Natsumi Kawaguchi vs Yuno Kitahara BUY Yuno Kitahara 87¢ $50 25h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Adela Polakovicova vs Karine Sarkisova BUY Karine Sarkisova 81¢ $50 25h
ITF Klosters: Eva Marie Voracek vs Sarina Schnyder BUY Eva Marie Voracek 81¢ $50 25h
Hyeon Chung vs. Masamichi Imamura: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 55¢ $51 26h
ITF Tokyo: Hyeon Chung vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Hyeon Chung 50¢ $51 26h
Set Handicap: Zhu (-1.5) vs Chen (+1.5) BUY Chen 30¢ $46 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $988.32 · official $987.28 (match) · 52 history records