Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:34:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd7d…6ef2 crypto 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$327 (-14%) realized −$330 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%60W / 131L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day44.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$159
7 days−$328
14 days−$444
30 days−$444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$519
other 3% +$65
sports 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 -16.5% -24.4% 34% 33% -29.4%
≤30d 191 -16.6% -24.5% 31% 30% -28.2%
≤90d 191 -16.6% -24.5% 31% 30% -28.2%
all 191 -16.6% -24.5% 31% 30% -28.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.5% 30% -28.2%
10% ← realistic here -31.7% 29% -35.0%
15% -38.3% 29% -41.3%
20% -44.4% 27% -47.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$10 · ×1.47 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses60 / 131
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage9d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day44.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Up 5¢ 8¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$28 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $12 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$38 +276%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $38 −$37 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $14 +$24 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $45 −$43 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $150 −$70 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $14 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 25 $16 +$28 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $13 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$63 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$7 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$7 +132%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$42 +414%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$9 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 25 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $11 +$13 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $65 −$63 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$13 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$10 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 25 $33 +$29 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$23 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 25 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 25 $3 +$4 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$13 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $0 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $58 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $30 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $24 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $22 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $14 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $117 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.26 · official $7.18 · 438 history records