Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:40:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd7c…46d9 crypto 483 markets active 10d ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,474 (-17%) realized −$16,630 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate43%205W / 274L
Whale WR39%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,482now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$9,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$18,007
world 0% +$295
politics 0% −$147
other 0% +$1
economics 0% −$145
finance 0% −$97
culture 0% −$9
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -37.5% -43.4% 17% 17% -95.0%
≤90d 451 -9.9% -18.5% 43% 43% -24.2%
all 479 -12.2% -20.6% 43% 42% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 42% -27.7%
10% -28.2% 41% -34.6%
15% -35.1% 39% -40.9%
20% -41.5% 37% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 39% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -22% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$197 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$2,482
Realized−$16,630
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses205 / 274
Whale WR (big bets)39%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)479 / 483
History coverage100d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 479 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2,276 $2,450 +$174 (+8%)
Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run by December 31, 2026? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $30 $22 −$8 (-27%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 16¢ 10¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-41%)
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 24¢ 8¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 250 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 17 $10 −$6 -59%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 12 $15 −$13 -87%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? Jun 10 $105 −$96 -91%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $9,520 −$9,255 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $100 +$117 +117%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? May 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 7? May 07 $102 +$47 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 06 $15 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 04 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 04 $104 +$93 +89%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? May 03 $21 −$20 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 9? May 03 $138 −$130 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 02 $117 −$110 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 01 $208 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 01 $144 −$139 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 7? May 01 $237 −$222 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 3? May 01 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 7? May 01 $106 −$100 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 6? Apr 29 $64 −$60 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 5? Apr 29 $128 −$120 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? Apr 28 $161 −$151 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 4? Apr 28 $136 −$128 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in April? Apr 27 $815 −$766 -94%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 27 $941 −$887 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $17 −$17 -95%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 28? Apr 27 $250 −$235 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 2? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 26? Apr 26 $100 +$217 +216%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 3? Apr 26 $101 −$95 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 3? Apr 26 $120 −$113 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 2? Apr 26 $200 −$188 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 28? Apr 26 $210 −$196 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 28? Apr 26 $324 −$304 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 26 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 29? Apr 26 $181 −$169 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$9 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 27? Apr 26 $10 −$9 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $10 +$16 +165%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 2? Apr 25 $100 −$93 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 25 $2,370 −$2,209 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 25? Apr 25 $236 −$222 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Apr 25 $100 −$97 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 April 20-26? Apr 25 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Apr 25 $40 +$36 +89%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? Apr 24 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 24 $43 +$37 +87%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? Apr 24 $100 −$93 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 24 $100 −$97 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 9d
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 9d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $342 15d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $111 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $48 15d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $47 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $131 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $132 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $310 15d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $60 16d
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $9 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $245 16d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $130 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $67 17d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $66 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $242 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $100 17d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $92 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $62 18d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $66 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $131 18d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $132 18d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $133 18d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $217 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $105 48d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $107 48d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $11 48d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $160 48d
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,481.73 · official $2,481.73 (match) · 2541 history records