Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:14:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfd7a…4ac7 other 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 577d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+0%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate23%16W / 54L
Drawdown71%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 62% −$14
politics 22% −$11
other 12% +$25
sports 1% +$22
tech 1% $0
world 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -7.8% -16.6% 23% 0% -11.5%
≤90d 60 -2.1% -11.4% 23% 15% -8.5%
all 70 -1.9% -11.2% 23% 13% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 13% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 11% -18.1%
15% -27.5% 10% -26.0%
20% -34.6% 10% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×4.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

577d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses16 / 54
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)70 / 72
History coverage577d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown71%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $26 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $19 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $18 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $25 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $25 $0 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $18 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $23 $0 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $117 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 13 $117 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $230 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $7 +$4 +65%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $119 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $112 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 02 $117 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $113 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $121 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $124 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $117 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $122 $0 -0%
Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 25 $115 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $124 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $126 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 24 $116 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $122 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $117 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 15 $120 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $116 $0 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $122 $0 -0%
Genius FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 13 $15 −$1 -6%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $12 +$8 +62%
Avalanche vs. Blues Apr 08 $8 +$6 +70%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $13 −$13 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $26 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $26 4h
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $33 10h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $77 46h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 6d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $19 12d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 13d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $14 22d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 22d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $34 22d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $24 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $1 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $10 23d
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $12 23d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $25 27d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $25 27d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $18 28d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $18 29d
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 49¢ $6 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $22 29d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $23 29d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $25 30d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $50 30d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $116 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.46 · official $109.46 (match) · 295 history records