Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd76…7721 crypto 1322 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,893 (-3%) realized −$1,905 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%743W / 624L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day68.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,125
7 days−$976
14 days−$1,066
30 days−$169
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$598
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 350 -22.9% -30.3% 45% 45% -26.5%
≤30d 703 -8.8% -17.5% 54% 54% -10.0%
≤90d 1367 -6.4% -15.3% 54% 54% -11.3%
all 1367 -6.4% -15.3% 54% 54% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 54% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 54% -19.8%
15% -30.8% 53% -27.6%
20% -37.6% 48% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$37 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1,905
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses743 / 624
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1367 / 1322
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$42
Trades / day68.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Down 62¢ 98¢ $22 $34 +$12 (+57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $22 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $20 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $21 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $18 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $16 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $12 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $22 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $24 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $18 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $17 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $19 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $23 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $18 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $21 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $16 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.12 · official $33.77 (match) · 3500 history records