Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:53:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfd76…0434 politics 25 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 25L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$546per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 48% −$10
other 24% −$4
tech 10% −$2
crypto 8% −$5
culture 8% −$2
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,011) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage83d
Avg bet$546
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 23 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $68 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,294 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 23 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 22 $68 $0 -0%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? May 22 $46 $0 -1%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 22 $28 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 20 $952 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? May 20 $1,054 −$5 -0%
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 20 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $77 $0 -0%
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 19 $981 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $1,041 −$2 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $964 −$2 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $59 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $946 −$1 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 05 $142 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $21 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 04 $74 $0 -0%
Will Stuttgart win the 2025–26 Bundesliga? Apr 01 $128 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 01 $48 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.3% in March? Apr 01 $28 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,266 1h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $18 1h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,236 1h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $22 2h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,291 2h
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 2h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,274 2h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 2h
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,004 2h
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 100¢ $303 2h
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 3h
Will Jasmine Paolini be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,309 3h
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $68 31d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 94¢ $46 31d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 31d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 31d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $14 31d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 94¢ $23 31d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 94¢ $24 31d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $14 31d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $28 31d
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? SELL No 100¢ $951 34d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $56 34d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $11 34d
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? BUY No 100¢ $934 34d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $24 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $600 34d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $449 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records