Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FD 0xfd75…fce3 crypto 1275 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%867W / 579L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day45.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$361
7 days−$351
14 days−$351
30 days−$358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$49
other 1% +$3
sports 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 324 -53.5% -57.9% 30% 4% -19.0%
≤30d 375 -46.6% -51.7% 36% 9% -19.0%
≤90d 1446 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 50% -14.5%
all 1446 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 50% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover45.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.2% 50% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -28.7% 38% -22.7%
15% -35.6% 28% -30.2%
20% -41.9% 18% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses867 / 579
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1446 / 1275
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day45.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1446 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 91¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? No 95¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 94¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 95¢ 89¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 496 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.39 · official $9.39 (match) · 3500 history records