Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:08:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd74…beda sports 322 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,620 (-8%) realized −$2,620 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate39%125W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$103per market
Trades / day17.7pace
Fees−$460est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$170
7 days−$258
14 days−$525
30 days−$525
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,804
other 44% −$1,071
crypto 3% −$131
world 1% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -11.3% -19.8% 41% 33% -13.0%
≤30d 79 -5.5% -14.5% 43% 34% -13.6%
≤90d 322 -15.3% -23.3% 39% 24% -18.5%
all 322 -15.3% -23.3% 39% 24% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 24% -18.5%
10% -30.7% 20% -26.3%
15% -37.4% 17% -33.4%
20% -43.5% 15% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$54 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,620
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses125 / 197
Est. fees paid−$460
Open positions0
Markets (closed)322 / 322
History coverage76d
Avg bet$103
Trades / day17.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 322 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $285 −$34 -12%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 24 $195 +$12 +6%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 24 $296 +$42 +14%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 24 $104 −$41 -40%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $113 +$11 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $227 −$34 -15%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $218 +$20 +9%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $78 −$50 -64%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $62 +$160 +260%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $260 +$239 +92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $90 −$35 -38%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $101 +$19 +19%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $273 −$273 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $98 +$102 +104%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $205 −$107 -52%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $180 +$106 +59%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $346 −$57 -16%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 −$100 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $125 +$74 +59%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $101 +$28 +28%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $96 −$11 -11%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $105 −$61 -58%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $340 −$302 -89%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $188 +$25 +13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$18 -61%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $64 −$64 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $285 +$138 +48%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $75 +$64 +85%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $180 −$94 -52%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $566 −$158 -28%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $178 +$363 +204%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $493 +$229 +46%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $80 −$41 -51%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $505 −$112 -22%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $104 −$51 -48%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $391 +$9 +2%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $523 −$182 -35%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $38 +$29 +75%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $108 +$14 +13%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 −$45 -90%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $260 −$123 -47%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $138 −$138 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $112 +$88 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $197 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 17¢ $35 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Scotland 68¢ $102 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Scotland 70¢ $105 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Scotland 65¢ $36 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Scotland 65¢ $7 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Scotland 65¢ $152 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 40¢ $196 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $94 1h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $156 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Scotland 49¢ $98 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) SELL Morocco 32¢ $63 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 63¢ $125 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $10 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $13 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $2 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $5 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $3 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $48 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $12 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Scotland 51¢ $10 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 41¢ $123 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $120 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 35¢ $62 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 35¢ $0 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 35¢ $0 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 35¢ $1 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 35¢ $0 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 35¢ $0 2h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Scotland 35¢ $6 2h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Scotland 60¢ $187 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1497 history records