Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:03:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd74…47c5
other · 126 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$7 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$62
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions125
Markets (closed)1 / 126
History coverage3d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day354.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 125 History 1 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? No 43¢ 44¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will the June 2026 unemployment rate be 4.6%? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+72%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 50¢ 71¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+42%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank hold at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 21¢ 30¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+43%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? No 58¢ 74¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+27%)
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? No 53¢ 59¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+30%)
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? No 6¢ 7¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+13%)
Will Deep Fission not IPO before August 2026? No 60¢ 76¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+26%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on Second Day? Down 53¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be at least 56.0 in June? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+94%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+62%)
Will there be 8 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Nansen launch a token by December 31, 2027? No 52¢ 54¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Neymar 14¢ 5¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Yes 63¢ 50¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Will the South African Reserve Bank cut by 25 bps at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-30%)
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-63%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+883%)
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 end of June? Yes 47¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will Uruguay be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+56%)
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? Yes 23¢ 52¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+128%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Reppo launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 41% +$1
other 34% −$2
tech 8% −$1
culture 6% −$2
politics 6% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 2% −$2
economics 2% +$1
weather 0% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $3 6m
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 26m
Will Elon Musk post 760-799 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 33m
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 33m
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? SELL No 44¢ $4 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will SpaceX have 14+ launches in June 2026? SELL No 37¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on last tra SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2h
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 3h
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 35¢ $1 3h
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 35¢ $2 4h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4h
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? SELL No 45¢ $1 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Austria? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will "BROWN - Chris Brown" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 4h
World Cup: Messi to Score 2+ Penalties? BUY No 45¢ $4 4h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover354.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.66 · official $58.40 · 980 history records