Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfd72…481d sports 95 markets active 2d ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$140 (-1%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate73%69W / 26L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$167per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$138est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1,300
14 days−$263
30 days−$263
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% +$38
other 2% −$301
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 -9.3% -17.9% 62% 56% -18.7%
≤30d 95 +7.5% -2.7% 73% 66% -10.4%
≤90d 95 +7.5% -2.7% 73% 66% -10.4%
all 95 +7.5% -2.7% 73% 66% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 66% -10.4%
10% -12.0% 54% -18.9%
15% -20.5% 37% -26.8%
20% -28.3% 24% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$140 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses69 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$138
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage11d
Avg bet$167
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $555 −$468 -84%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) Jun 14 $92 +$93 +101%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $65 +$27 +42%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $151 −$86 -57%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $664 −$348 -52%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $115 −$96 -84%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $177 −$177 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 14 $182 −$182 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $337 −$337 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $301 −$301 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $580 −$529 -91%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $66 +$36 +54%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $67 −$66 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $70 +$47 +67%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $145 −$143 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $215 +$19 +9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $44 −$43 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $59 +$35 +59%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $639 +$120 +19%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $665 +$175 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $330 +$137 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $937 −$214 -23%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $177 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $334 +$108 +32%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $341 +$93 +27%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $278 +$63 +23%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $150 +$78 +52%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $67 +$19 +29%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $105 +$114 +109%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $101 −$50 -49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $514 +$39 +8%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$41 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $198 +$44 +22%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $115 +$47 +41%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $199 +$22 +11%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $147 +$28 +19%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $201 +$68 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $129 +$17 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $50 +$24 +48%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $60 +$35 +59%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $61 +$50 +82%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $301 +$47 +16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $52 +$21 +40%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $242 +$62 +26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $252 +$121 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $409 2d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) SELL G2 100¢ $184 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Natus Vincere 31¢ $78 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 56¢ $146 2d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Legacy (+1.5) BUY G2 49¢ $92 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 92¢ $92 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $65 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 30¢ $65 2d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 68¢ $151 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 60¢ $151 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 64¢ $166 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 23¢ $165 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 67¢ $498 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 62¢ $97 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 61¢ $383 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $103 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 64¢ $66 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 32¢ $44 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 61¢ $67 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $117 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $51 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 75¢ $53 2d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY Gen.G 55¢ $145 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 71¢ $100 2d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 59¢ $70 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 100¢ $219 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 71¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 80¢ $50 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 75¢ $65 3d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 21¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 224 history records