Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:54:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd70…1564 crypto 188 markets active 5d ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$81 (+9%) realized +$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate41%77W / 111L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$64
14 days−$66
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$81
tech 1% +$138
other 1% −$1
politics 1% −$4
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 -10.8% -19.3% 42% 35% -16.5%
≤30d 180 -3.9% -13.0% 41% 34% -3.8%
≤90d 188 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 34% -3.9%
all 188 -3.1% -12.3% 41% 34% -3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 34% -3.9%
10% -20.7% 29% -13.1%
15% -28.4% 22% -21.5%
20% -35.4% 12% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses77 / 111
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage80d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$5 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$3 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$6 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $7 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$3 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 553 history records