Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T22:22:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd6e…453a other 1175 markets active 1h ago coverage 87d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$609 (-13%) realized −$617 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%282W / 868L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$67est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days+$38
14 days+$73
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$205
other 31% −$104
crypto 0% −$4
world 0% −$3
finance 0% −$14
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-24.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 83 -30.2% -36.9% 22% 22% -1.6%
≤30d 275 -1.4% -10.8% 28% 28% -5.3%
≤90d 1150 -16.1% -24.1% 25% 24% -16.0%
all 1150 -16.1% -24.1% 25% 24% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.1% 24% -16.0%
10% ← realistic here -31.4% 23% -24.0%
15% -38.0% 23% -31.4%
20% -44.1% 22% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$3 · ×2.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$617
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses282 / 868
Est. fees paid−$67
Open positions21
Markets (closed)1150 / 1175
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 1150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 42¢ 54¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+27%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Erika Sema 44¢ 60¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+78%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$6 +188%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Taipei: Fang An Lin vs Mio Mushika Jun 16 $5 +$6 +118%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $12 −$1 -5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $7 −$2 -28%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$10 +197%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $8 −$2 -26%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +15%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$3 -23%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $6 +$16 +258%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$61 +296%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $4 +$13 +312%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$25 +123%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$4 -54%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 38m
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 42¢ $31 38m
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 45m
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $3 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 17¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $5 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $20 4h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Will Fran BUY 3¢ $2 15h
ITF Tauste: Andrea Palazon Lacasa vs Yasmine Mansouri BUY Andrea Palazon Lacasa 7¢ $1 15h
ITF Taipei: Fang An Lin vs Mio Mushika SELL Fang An Lin 100¢ $11 15h
ITF Taipei: Fang An Lin vs Mio Mushika BUY Fang An Lin 45¢ $5 16h
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee BUY Erika Sema 44¢ $5 16h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Chicago White Sox 45¢ $9 16h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 99¢ $12 17h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 12¢ $2 17h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 19h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 19h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 41¢ $5 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 19h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 20h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 20h
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 46¢ $10 21h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 21h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $77.88 · official $76.79 · 3500 history records