Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:08:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd5e…66b3 politics 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%2W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 63% −$92
sports 23% −$1
crypto 14% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 34 -3.1% -12.3% 6% 0% -10.7%
all 34 -3.1% -12.3% 6% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 0% -10.7%
10% -20.7% 0% -19.2%
15% -28.4% 0% -27.0%
20% -35.4% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses2 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage86d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $82 $82 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $165 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 10 $165 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $165 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $165 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $251 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $168 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $168 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $85 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $85 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $85 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $583 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $85 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $87 −$87 -100%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $584 +$1 +0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $87 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $87 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $87 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 03 $498 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $499 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 31 $499 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 30 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 29 $500 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 1h
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 8d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $82 12d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $82 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 14d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 15d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 17d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 17d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 19d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 19d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 20d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 20d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 20d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 20d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $84 24d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 24d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 25d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 27d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 27d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 28d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $83 28d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $83 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 34d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 35d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $84 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.