Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:12:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfd5c…6d2a other 400 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (64 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$26,713 (+32%) realized +$26,591 · open +$122
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate40%165W / 250L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day64.5pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$1,412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% +$6,850
politics 22% +$2,454
world 3% +$107
finance 1% −$16
culture 0% −$7
sports 0% −$23
crypto 0% −$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (64 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -34.5% -40.7% 26% 17% -6.7%
≤30d 268 +5.2% -4.8% 34% 26% -2.4%
≤90d 415 +11.9% +1.2% 40% 31% +1.3%
all 415 +11.9% +1.2% 40% 31% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.2% 31% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 26% -8.4%
15% -17.3% 20% -17.3%
20% -25.4% 15% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$98 vs −$29 · ×3.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,412
Realized+$26,591
Unrealized+$122
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses165 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions18
Markets (closed)415 / 400
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$210
Trades / day64.5
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $319 $379 +$60 (+19%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 85¢ 97¢ $330 $376 +$45 (+14%)
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? No 80¢ 98¢ $228 $279 +$51 (+22%)
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 88¢ 98¢ $154 $173 +$18 (+12%)
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from June 15 - 21? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $91 $90 −$2 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 94¢ $17 $20 +$3 (+20%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $27 $19 −$7 (-28%)
Halle Berry as Storm? No 67¢ 49¢ $24 $17 −$6 (-26%)
Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $18 $15 −$4 (-20%)
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Henry Cavill announced as next James Bond? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-76%)
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 13¢ 4¢ $12 $4 −$8 (-66%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Yes 29¢ 12¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-57%)
Tom Hardy announced as next James Bond? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-70%)
Jonathan Majors as Kang? Yes 24¢ 8¢ $4 $1 −$2 (-67%)
Will MrBeast get married by December 31? Yes 61¢ 66¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-54%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 198 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$31 -443%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remark Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will White House post 100-119 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 14 to Apr Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $0 −$7 -2241%
Will White House post 120-139 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will White House post 80-99 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$5 -65%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 20-39 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 22, Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 0-19 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Jun 15 $7 +$76 +1096%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will White House post 40-59 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 180-199 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will White House post 0-19 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from May 15 to May 2 Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Trump say "N Word" in April? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will White House post 20-39 posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi Jun 15 $27 −$2 -9%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $335 +$72 +21%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $70 +$15 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $256 +$14 +5%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 14 $5 −$2 -32%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $28 −$15 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $424 −$5 -1%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $55 −$52 -96%
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Will CZ post 0-19 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -98%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $730 +$19 +3%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $85 +$30 +35%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $840 +$18 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $278 −$13 -5%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$39 -99%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $58 +$20 +34%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 11 $8 −$1 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi SELL No 53¢ $25 46m
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 57¢ $39 47m
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world BUY Yes 59¢ $54 48m
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 59¢ $6 48m
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi BUY No 55¢ $21 48m
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $59 5h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $98 5h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $86 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $59 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $58 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $13 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 11h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $0 11h
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 6¢ $4 12h
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June SELL Yes 16¢ $30 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $51 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $97 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $97 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 51¢ $6 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $105 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $183 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $17 12h
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $13 13h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $12 14h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $24 14h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $87 14h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $70 14h
Will White House post 180-199 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $390 14h
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,412.39 · official $1,412.41 (match) · 3500 history records