Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:47:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfd58…2aac politics 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$140 (-0%) realized −$140 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%13W / 97L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,421per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$490now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$36
14 days+$0
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$235
politics 44% −$118
sports 4% +$272
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$2
crypto 1% −$107
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 50 -1.6% -11.0% 10% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 108 -3.4% -12.6% 12% 9% -9.6%
all 110 -3.4% -12.6% 12% 9% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 9% -9.6%
10% -20.9% 9% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 9% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 9% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,707) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$7 · ×5.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$490
Realized−$140
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses13 / 97
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 112
History coverage91d
Avg bet$1,421
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $286 $286 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $204 $204 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $1,839 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,493 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,441 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $522 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $357 +$2 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $2,727 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,260 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $5,306 −$9 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,724 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7,701 −$8 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,872 −$5 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 10 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,006 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,894 −$3 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,412 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,528 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $2,645 −$3 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,330 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 07 $49 +$58 +119%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,446 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,477 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 04 $78 +$76 +97%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $1,198 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $4,922 −$5 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,578 −$4 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $722 +$2 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,133 −$3 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $729 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $958 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $596 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $2,574 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,693 −$3 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $3,727 −$5 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $81 −$81 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,226 −$2 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Girona FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,232 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $60 +$65 +109%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $3,138 −$3 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,235 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $286 1h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $605 22h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $628 23h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $606 26h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $629 27h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $790 2d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $791 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $522 2d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $522 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,280 3d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,282 3d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,153 4d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,154 4d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,213 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,215 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,295 5d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,297 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,161 5d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,163 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $984 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $985 6d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,301 7d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,302 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,304 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,306 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $977 9d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $978 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $416 10d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $416 10d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,005 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.97 · official $489.97 (match) · 340 history records