Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:39:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd57…c03a sports 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$9 (-2%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$32
7 days−$38
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$4
other 33% +$17
tech 5% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -38.7% -44.5% 38% 31% -22.7%
≤30d 38 +10.6% +0.1% 47% 45% -9.0%
≤90d 38 +10.6% +0.1% 47% 45% -9.0%
all 38 +10.6% +0.1% 47% 45% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.1% 45% -9.0%
10% -9.5% 42% -17.7%
15% -18.3% 37% -25.7%
20% -26.3% 18% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +34% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage13d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$9 +17%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $20 +$17 +86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$5 -47%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 $0 +1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 −$9 -44%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$25 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$15 +291%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 +$7 +69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $20 +$8 +41%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$4 -24%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $50 +$19 +38%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 +$17 +85%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $20 +$10 +49%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $2 +$21 +1041%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$3 +158%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $20 +$5 +25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$10 -63%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -53%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +40%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $59 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 26h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 9¢ $5 28h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 28h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $5 43h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $30 43h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 21¢ $5 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 60¢ $10 46h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 38¢ $11 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $10 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $15 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $15 5d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $20 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 6d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 31¢ $5 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 78¢ $17 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 94¢ $28 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $31 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 64¢ $20 8d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $20 8d
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 25¢ $5 8d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 47¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records