Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FD 0xfd56…0b8d culture 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
RISKYcopy with care culture specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$228 (+58%) realized +$139 · open +$89
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$216now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$58
14 days+$84
30 days+$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 97% +$230
other 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +53.7% +39.1% 40% 40% +69.4%
≤30d 18 +27.4% +15.3% 50% 50% +31.7%
≤90d 19 +32.5% +19.9% 53% 53% +35.9%
all 19 +32.5% +19.9% 53% 53% +35.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +19.9% 53% +35.9%
10% +8.4% 53% +22.9%
15% -2.1% 47% +11.0%
20% -11.7% 47% +0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +44% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$8 · ×2.46 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.73 per $1 lost it wins $2.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$216
Realized+$139
Unrealized+$89
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions6
Markets (closed)19 / 25
History coverage33d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will "Home" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will "Heart" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? Jun 14 $15 +$14 +91%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? Jun 13 $16 +$68 +435%
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? Jun 13 $25 −$14 -58%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 07 $5 +$6 +110%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? Jun 07 $56 +$40 +72%
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Jun 06 $16 −$10 -64%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 25m May 31 $16 +$24 +156%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 28m May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Will "Michael" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19m? May 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11.5m May 25 $16 −$13 -83%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 24 $5 −$4 -69%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 22 $5 +$9 +166%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? May 22 $15 +$9 +61%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 22 $10 +$3 +25%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be b May 22 $10 +$15 +147%
Will "Michael" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 25m? May 18 $15 +$19 +124%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Arirang - BTS" be the top Spotify album for 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 1h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 70m? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 1h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 70m? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 71¢ $30 11h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes $5 16h
Will "Home" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 23h
Will "Heart" be said during the next Spider-Man trailer? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 23h
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m BUY Yes 27¢ $20 25h
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu BUY Yes 19¢ $16 2d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m BUY Yes 12¢ $7 3d
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 145m? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? SELL Yes 77¢ $30 4d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? SELL No 92¢ $84 4d
Will "Backrooms" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 5d
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 17m? BUY No 16¢ $16 5d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 7d
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 8d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 SELL Yes 70¢ $10 10d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than SELL Yes $0 10d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? SELL Yes 92¢ $65 10d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 12d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? SELL Yes $6 12d
Will "Obsession" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 12d
Will "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 52m? SELL Yes 95¢ $31 13d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 BUY Yes 33¢ $5 14d
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than BUY Yes 22¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.97 · official $215.97 (match) · 53 history records