Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T12:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd4e…1183
crypto · 567 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$29 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses324 / 243
Open positions0
Markets (closed)567 / 567
History coverage34d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day25.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 567 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$64
7 days−$54
14 days−$69
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 57¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Down 63¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Down 68¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Down 60¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Down 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Down 61¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Up 60¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 +$3 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $12 +$9 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$11 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$7 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $4 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $3 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 104 -8.5% -17.2% 57% 57% -19.1%
≤30d 418 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 55% -12.4%
≤90d 567 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 57% -11.3%
all 567 -0.5% -10.0% 57% 57% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover25.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 57% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 56% -19.8%
15% -26.4% 52% -27.6%
20% -33.7% 47% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 907 history records