Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:40:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FD 0xfd4c…b237 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$137 (+9%) realized +$137 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip

Net edge-3%after slip

Net WR71%break-even

Win rate71%5W / 2L

Drawdown56%max

Avg bet$221per market

Trades / day12.0pace

Fees−$28est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +71%

net ROI/market (all)+5.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+16.2%	+5.2%	71%	71%	+8.9%
≤30d	7	+16.2%	+5.2%	71%	71%	+8.9%
≤90d	7	+16.2%	+5.2%	71%	71%	+8.9%
all	7	+16.2%	+5.2%	71%	71%	+8.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.2%	71%	+8.9%
10%	-4.9%	57%	-1.6%
15%	-14.1%	43%	-11.1%
20%	-22.5%	29%	-19.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 43% · top 2 69% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +20% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$143 vs −$200 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.79 per $1 lost it wins $1.79

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$137

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses5 / 2

Est. fees paid−$28

Open positions0

Markets (closed)7 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$221

Trades / day12.0

Drawdown56%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 7 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	Jun 16	$246	−$246	-100%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari	Jun 16	$153	−$153	-100%
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova	Jun 16	$297	+$117	+40%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang	Jun 16	$221	+$76	+34%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners	Jun 15	$203	+$185	+91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	Jun 15	$229	+$306	+134%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	Jun 15	$200	+$29	+14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova	SELL Karolina Muchova	100¢	$414	1h
Grass Court Championships: Shuai Zhang vs Karolina Muchova	BUY Karolina Muchova	71¢	$297	3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang	SELL Madison Keys	99¢	$297	3h
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang	BUY Madison Keys	73¢	$221	5h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners	SELL Over	99¢	$388	13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 5.5 Corners	BUY Over	51¢	$203	14h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners	BUY Over	42¢	$229	22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	SELL XLG Gaming	27¢	$228	22h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner	BUY XLG Gaming	23¢	$200	23h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner	BUY TheMongolz	44¢	$246	24h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari	BUY Maria Sakkari	10¢	$51	24h
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari	BUY Maria Sakkari	51¢	$101	24h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records