Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:54:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd49…03b8 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,836 (-12%) realized −$4,739 · open −$97
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%125W / 123L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$639
7 days−$560
14 days−$644
30 days−$948
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$953
sports 39% −$2,601
world 3% −$851
tech 3% −$1,007
crypto 2% −$51
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -36.5% -42.6% 42% 26% -26.5%
≤30d 62 -25.4% -32.5% 45% 31% -22.1%
≤90d 248 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 42% -22.0%
all 248 -16.4% -24.4% 50% 42% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 42% -22.0%
10% -31.6% 35% -29.5%
15% -38.2% 24% -36.3%
20% -44.3% 18% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$101 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4,739
Unrealized−$97
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses125 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions1
Markets (closed)248 / 249
History coverage80d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $98 $1 −$97 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $172 +$14 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $144 +$27 +19%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $113 +$27 +24%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $503 −$390 -78%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $367 −$338 -92%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $711 +$20 +3%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $58 +$25 +42%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $48 −$11 -22%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $737 +$70 +9%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $100 −$2 -2%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Qatar? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $17 +$9 +51%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +43%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$2 +25%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 $0 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $87 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $53 −$31 -59%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $68 +$18 +26%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $1,233 −$210 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +93%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 06 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$5 +100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $1,102 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 30 $2 $0 +13%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $65 +$65 +101%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $158 −$93 -59%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca (BO5) - ESL Challenger League North Americ May 29 $86 +$4 +4%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $229 +$7 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 28 $26 +$2 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 27 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET May 27 $11 +$10 +99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $325 −$26 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 26 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 26 $26 +$12 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 5¢ $101 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $172 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 84¢ $144 25h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 42h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $113 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $31 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 20¢ $81 42h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $503 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 3¢ $29 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $367 44h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $8 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $19 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $15 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 54¢ $2 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $91 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $5 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $50 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $10 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $98 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $2 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $9 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $50 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 46h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.98 · official $0.98 (match) · 783 history records