Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd46…0545
crypto · 223 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$15,192 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$17,458 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,458
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses81 / 142
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)223 / 223
History coverage360d
Avg bet$419
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 0 History 223 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$544
7 days+$544
14 days+$544
30 days+$542
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $615 $0 −$615 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Up 24¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1,000 $0 −$1,000 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $164 $0 −$164 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $152 $0 −$152 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $457 $0 −$457 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Up 35¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $130 $0 −$130 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $733 $0 −$733 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2,209 $0 −$2,209 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $253 +$169 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $63 −$61 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $50 +$57 +115%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $105 +$204 +195%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $1,423 +$1,660 +117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $615 −$615 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $284 +$108 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $729 −$729 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $172 −$164 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$46 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $183 +$116 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $159 −$152 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $331 +$52 +16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $2,889 +$277 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 12 $1,404 −$1,404 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 11 $260 −$260 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 11 $265 −$265 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 11 $1,089 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 11 $1,308 +$126 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 11 $996 −$996 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 11 $475 −$457 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 11 $2,297 −$2,209 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 11 $523 −$500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 11 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET May 11 $135 −$130 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 11 $332 −$332 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 11 $1,059 −$1,059 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 11 $259 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 11 $527 −$250 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 11 $1,811 +$26 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 11 $261 −$250 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET May 11 $312 −$50 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 11 $263 +$187 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 11 $582 −$5 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 11 $1,235 +$339 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 11 $579 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 11 $577 −$50 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 11 $1,048 +$282 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 11 $338 +$542 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 11 $665 +$299 +45%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 79% −$17,860
world 14% +$1,620
sports 3% +$421
politics 2% −$1,382
other 1% +$95
tech 1% −$347
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $423 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $207 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $46 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $21 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $31 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $50 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $28 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 18m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $911 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $513 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $11 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -9.6% -18.2% 50% 45% -3.2%
≤30d 22 -10.4% -19.0% 50% 45% -3.2%
≤90d 106 -43.9% -49.2% 29% 25% -39.9%
all 223 -23.0% -30.4% 36% 33% -26.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 33% -26.7%
10% -37.0% 30% -33.7%
15% -43.1% 27% -40.1%
20% -48.7% 23% -46.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1290 history records