Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:27:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FD 0xfd43…92bf crypto 3 markets active 6d ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$1 (-19%) realized −$1 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip

Net edge-44%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$2per market

Trades / day8.0pace

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-41.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-35.6%	-41.7%	33%	0%	-38.3%
≤30d	3	-35.6%	-41.7%	33%	0%	-38.3%
≤90d	3	-35.6%	-41.7%	33%	0%	-38.3%
all	3	-35.6%	-41.7%	33%	0%	-38.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover8.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-41.7%	0%	-38.3%
10%	-47.3%	0%	-44.2%
15%	-52.4%	0%	-49.6%
20%	-57.1%	0%	-54.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.01 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions0

Markets (closed)3 / 3

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2

Trades / day8.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 3 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Jun 11	$1	−$1	-82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Jun 11	$3	−$1	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Jun 11	$1	$0	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	SELL Up	10¢	$0	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	SELL Up	90¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	BUY Up	87¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Up	25¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	SELL Up	74¢	$2	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$1	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	BUY Up	63¢	$1	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 9 history records