Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

FD 0xfd43…7d3d sports 24 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,339 (+13%) realized +$1,335 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip

Net edge-1%after slip

Net WR68%break-even

Win rate68%13W / 6L

Drawdown45%max

Avg bet$427per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$21est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$595now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$873

7 days+$257

14 days+$676

30 days+$1,369

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +68%

net ROI/market (all)+7.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	16	+18.8%	+7.5%	62%	62%	+1.2%
≤30d	19	+18.5%	+7.2%	68%	68%	+3.3%
≤90d	19	+18.5%	+7.2%	68%	68%	+3.3%
all	19	+18.5%	+7.2%	68%	68%	+3.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+7.2%	68%	+3.3%
10%	-3.1%	58%	-6.6%
15%	-12.4%	47%	-15.6%
20%	-21.0%	32%	-23.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 41% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +18% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +4% → late +32% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$168 vs −$137 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage

Net worth$595

Realized+$1,335

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)68%

Wins / losses13 / 6

Est. fees paid−$21

Open positions5

Markets (closed)19 / 24

History coverage30d

Avg bet$427

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown45%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 5 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	68¢	68¢	$409	$411	+$2 (+0%)
Spread: England (-1.5)	England	54¢	56¢	$108	$111	+$3 (+3%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)	Belgium	42¢	42¢	$42	$42	−$0 (-1%)
Spread: England (-2.5)	England	31¢	30¢	$31	$30	−$0 (-2%)
Spread: England (-2.5)	England	29¢	34¢	$1	$1	+$0 (+16%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$102	+$131	+129%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first?	Jun 18	$49	−$48	-97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$82	+$118	+144%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$70	+$30	+43%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$370	+$201	+54%
Spread: England (-1.5)	Jun 17	$87	+$213	+245%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$98	+$102	+104%
Spread: Ghana (-2.5)	Jun 17	$30	−$30	-100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$90	−$90	-100%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5)	Jun 17	$36	−$36	-100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$142	+$58	+41%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$20	+$5	+25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$204	+$96	+47%
Spread: Norway (-1.5)	Jun 17	$177	+$123	+70%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$100	−$100	-100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5	Jun 16	$516	−$516	-100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8?	Jun 09	$3,019	+$419	+14%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase May 19-25?	Jun 03	$950	+$216	+23%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 19-25?	Jun 03	$3,519	+$477	+14%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$33	5m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$42	14m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$42	19m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$3	1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	43¢	$102	2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$2	3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Neither team to score first?	BUY Yes	10¢	$49	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$2	3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$14	7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1	7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$2	8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1	9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$2	9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1	9h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$110	10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$1	10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$4	10h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$70	11h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	68¢	$8	13h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17?	BUY No	70¢	$70	20h
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	29¢	$1	20h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	54¢	$108	21h
Spread: England (-2.5)	BUY England	31¢	$31	21h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5)	BUY Ghana	6¢	$4	21h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5)	BUY Ghana	6¢	$0	21h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5)	BUY Ghana	6¢	$17	21h
Spread: Ghana (-2.5)	BUY Ghana	6¢	$9	21h
Spread: England (-1.5)	BUY England	29¢	$87	22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	56¢	$168	22h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	74¢	$202	22h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $594.72 · official $594.72 (match) · 142 history records