Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:52:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd41…8761 sports 322 markets active 0h ago coverage 33d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,176 (-12%) realized −$3,350 · open +$174
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate40%124W / 189L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day50.7pace
Fees−$150est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$502now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days−$843
14 days−$1,594
30 days−$3,335
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 55% −$2,362
sports 36% −$1,271
other 8% +$388
culture 0% −$39
finance 0% +$56
tech 0% −$12
world 0% +$45
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -46.0% -51.1% 24% 20% -35.6%
≤30d 289 -20.5% -28.1% 39% 37% -20.8%
≤90d 313 -18.6% -26.4% 40% 38% -20.6%
all 313 -18.6% -26.4% 40% 38% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.4% 38% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -33.4% 34% -28.2%
15% -39.8% 30% -35.1%
20% -45.7% 24% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$63 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$502
Realized−$3,350
Unrealized+$174
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses124 / 189
Est. fees paid−$150
Open positions9
Markets (closed)313 / 322
History coverage33d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day50.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 60¢ 100¢ $121 $200 +$79 (+65%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $72 $120 +$48 (+67%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Under 60¢ 96¢ $66 $106 +$40 (+61%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 100¢ $28 $50 +$21 (+75%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $6 $4 −$2 (-34%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Over 35¢ 14¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-61%)
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $3 −$3 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 129 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $246 +$224 +91%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $36 −$7 -18%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $62 −$7 -12%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $32 −$32 -99%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $90 +$24 +27%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $49 $0 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $47 −$9 -19%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $81 −$79 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $25 −$25 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $55 +$65 +119%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $83 +$37 +44%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $76 +$74 +97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 19? Jun 19 $146 −$145 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $28 +$32 +114%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $56 +$62 +111%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $63 −$62 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $42 −$25 -60%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $55 −$54 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $19 +$11 +58%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Derrick Lewis win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 14 $262 −$215 -82%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 14 $66 −$45 -68%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $70 −$47 -67%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $116 −$114 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $42 −$17 -41%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 −$29 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $68 −$67 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $27 −$27 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $49 −$49 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $11 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $146 +$71 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $159 +$8 +5%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $35 −$17 -47%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $43 +$47 +107%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $20 −$3 -14%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $63 −$9 -15%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 13 $60 −$60 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $9 −$7 -78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 21m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $30 29m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 60¢ $36 30m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 75¢ $38 36m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 49¢ $35 39m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 50¢ $30 39m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $39 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $61 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $62 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 13h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 14h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $16 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $6 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $16 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $52 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 55¢ $54 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $62 14h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $36 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $100 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 47¢ $60 14h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 15h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $49 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $32 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $100 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 17h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $72 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $501.62 · official $501.63 (match) · 1792 history records