Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:42:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd41…e14f
sports · 28 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$84 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$74 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$3
Realized−$74
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses5 / 18
Est. fees paid−$34
Open positions5
Markets (closed)23 / 28
History coverage16d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 23 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$148
7 days−$195
14 days−$46
30 days−$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Kansas City Royals 11¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-32%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 17¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Los Angeles Dodgers 26¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays New York Yankees 19¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Detroit Tigers 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Philadelphia Phillies $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Chicago White Sox $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens Canadiens $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Thunder 41¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles San Diego Padres $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Golden Knights 46¢ $87 $0 −$87 (-100%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 14¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 18¢ $47 $0 −$47 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Texas Rangers $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $10 −$1 -5%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $2 −$2 -76%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $169 −$89 -53%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $189 −$49 -26%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $45 −$44 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $203 −$14 -7%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $10 +$10 +101%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $277 −$5 -2%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $2 −$2 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $5 +$11 +206%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 04 $4 −$1 -32%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $47 +$101 +216%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $56 +$51 +91%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 29 $5 −$5 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 28 $10 +$9 +86%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 28 $18 −$18 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$84
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 25¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 17¢ $1 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 18¢ $3 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Hurricanes 52¢ $5 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 14¢ $2 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 17¢ $1 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 26¢ $2 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 18¢ $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights SELL Golden Knights 47¢ $5 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates SELL Pittsburgh Pirates $0 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies $1 1h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 11¢ $2 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Philadelphia Phillies $2 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 18¢ $2 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers $1 1h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres $2 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates $1 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 49¢ $5 23h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $5 23h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights $5 24h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights $2 24h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights $5 24h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights $5 24h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 11¢ $17 24h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 15¢ $26 24h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 55¢ $25 25h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 56¢ $26 25h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 43¢ $25 25h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 42¢ $20 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -53.6% -58.0% 9% 9% -46.5%
≤30d 23 -13.2% -21.5% 22% 22% -18.7%
≤90d 23 -13.2% -21.5% 22% 22% -18.7%
all 23 -13.2% -21.5% 22% 22% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 22% -18.7%
10% -29.0% 22% -26.5%
15% -35.9% 22% -33.6%
20% -42.2% 22% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.67 · official $2.67 (match) · 110 history records