Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:38:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd3f…0a99
other · 31 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$178 -37%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$162 · open −$16
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$112
Realized−$162
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses5 / 17
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)22 / 31
History coverage84d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 9 History 22 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$56
7 days+$56
14 days+$56
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 13¢ $20 $44 +$24 (+122%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 26¢ $8 $42 +$34 (+424%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $8 $17 +$9 (+107%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? Yes $8 $0 −$8 (-95%)
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-97%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes $13 $0 −$13 (-99%)
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ $28 $0 −$28 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 23¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Yes 27¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? Yes 16¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and 80m? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Yes 10¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Yes 28¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Yes 12¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Yes 19¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Up 14¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Yes 13¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? Yes $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m? Yes 17¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$50 +250%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$53 +172%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -98%
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? May 06 $4 +$5 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 06 $5 +$4 +89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? Apr 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $10 −$10 -98%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 02 $50 −$50 -100%
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 23 $1 +$6 +576%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$56
world 29% −$140
sports 8% +$31
culture 6% −$22
crypto 1% +$2
economics 1% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes $14 1h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes $8 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Paraguay? BUY Yes $8 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 7h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 7h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $23 18h
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 23h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 24h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 37d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 62d
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 62d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 62d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 62d
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? BUY Yes $10 71d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? BUY Yes 13¢ $50 71d
Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 81d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes $10 81d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? BUY Yes $20 81d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 81d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes $10 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 81d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 81d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +55.5% +40.7% 50% 50% +42.1%
≤30d 4 +55.5% +40.7% 50% 50% +42.1%
≤90d 22 -21.3% -28.8% 23% 23% -52.6%
all 22 -21.3% -28.8% 23% 23% -52.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 23% -52.6%
10% -35.6% 23% -57.1%
15% -41.8% 23% -61.3%
20% -47.5% 23% -65.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $112.30 · official $112.31 (match) · 44 history records