trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $20 | +$50 | +250% |
| Exact Score: Canada 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? | Jun 12 | $31 | −$30 | -97% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $31 | +$53 | +172% |
| Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? | Jun 12 | $17 | −$17 | -98% |
| Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%? | May 06 | $4 | +$5 | +144% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET | May 06 | $5 | +$4 | +89% |
| Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? | May 06 | $51 | −$50 | -98% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31? | Apr 11 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? | Apr 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? | Apr 11 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-11? | Apr 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Fulham FC win on 2026-04-11? | Apr 11 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? | Apr 02 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | Apr 02 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Military action against Iran ends on March 31, 2026? | Mar 23 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | Mar 23 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET | Mar 23 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Will "Hoppers" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 18m and 19.5m? | Mar 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will "Project Hail Mary" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 75m and | Mar 23 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? | Mar 23 | $1 | +$6 | +576% |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.7% in March? | Mar 20 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 4 | +55.5% | +40.7% | 50% | 50% | +42.1% |
| ≤30d | 4 | +55.5% | +40.7% | 50% | 50% | +42.1% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -21.3% | -28.8% | 23% | 23% | -52.6% |
| all | 22 | -21.3% | -28.8% | 23% | 23% | -52.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -28.8% | 23% | -52.6% |
| 10% | -35.6% | 23% | -57.1% |
| 15% | -41.8% | 23% | -61.3% |
| 20% | -47.5% | 23% | -65.1% |