Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:56:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd3d…1702 crypto 740 markets active 5h ago coverage 72d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 72d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$451 (-1%) realized −$398 · open −$53
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate64%474W / 263L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day37.6pace
Fees−$1,028est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$833now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$169
7 days+$49
14 days+$390
30 days−$538
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$479
crypto 9% −$868
other 4% +$774
world 1% −$425
tech 1% +$225
finance 1% +$161
politics 0% −$9
weather 0% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +4.5% -5.4% 59% 59% -1.3%
≤30d 31 +36.3% +23.3% 58% 58% -21.2%
≤90d 737 -3.7% -12.9% 64% 25% -10.0%
all 737 -3.7% -12.9% 64% 25% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.9% 25% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -21.2% 18% -18.6%
15% -28.9% 16% -26.5%
20% -35.8% 14% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$65 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

72d coverage
Net worth$833
Realized−$398
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses474 / 263
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$1,028
Open positions3
Markets (closed)737 / 740
History coverage72d ⚠
Avg bet$121
Trades / day37.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 737 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $770 $725 −$45 (-6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $49 $39 −$10 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $65 +$135 +206%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $108 −$107 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $334 +$66 +20%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $68 −$67 -99%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $181 +$92 +51%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -98%
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jun 16 $24 +$20 +84%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $101 −$13 -12%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $335 −$273 -82%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $24 −$24 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$49 +97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $91 +$39 +42%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $173 +$27 +16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $58 +$15 +26%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 12 $92 +$98 +106%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $35 +$15 +42%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 06 $23 +$277 +1218%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $171 +$29 +17%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $101 +$34 +34%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $651 −$600 -92%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $158 +$42 +27%
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 30 $9 +$16 +176%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $152 −$132 -87%
Roland Garros WTA: Donna Vekic vs Naomi Osaka May 28 $74 +$26 +36%
Roland Garros WTA: Victoria Mboko vs Katerina Siniakova May 28 $31 −$31 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Elise Mertens May 28 $67 −$66 -99%
Roland Garros WTA: Tamara Korpatsch vs Xinyu Wang May 27 $51 −$50 -98%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Lois Boisson May 26 $100 +$15 +14%
Roland Garros WTA: Petra Marcinko vs Eva Lys May 25 $49 +$51 +105%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Qinwen Zheng May 25 $201 −$200 -99%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 18 $271 +$29 +11%
Will Trump say "Fentanyl" during events with Xi Jinping? May 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 13 $372 +$28 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 09 $355 +$145 +41%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Emma Navarro vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto May 08 $58 −$57 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Xinyu Wang vs Alexandra Eala May 08 $111 +$89 +79%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Anastasia Potapova vs Karolina Muchova May 08 $194 −$192 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? May 08 $24 −$23 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: McCartney Kessler vs Iva Jovic May 07 $45 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rebeka Masarova vs Leylah Fernandez May 07 $343 −$340 -99%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Ma May 07 $23 +$26 +115%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Katerina Siniakova vs Anna Kalinskaya May 07 $46 +$54 +119%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Tereza Valentova May 07 $396 +$104 +26%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jelena Ostapenko vs Amanda Anisimova May 07 $90 +$10 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma May 07 $151 +$6 +4%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karolina Pliskova vs Jessica Bouzas Manei May 06 $188 +$112 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 06 $0 $0 +75%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 06 $97 −$97 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $27 4h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) SELL Portugal $1 5h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $400 6h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 44¢ $51 6h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $65 7h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 67¢ $68 20h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 83¢ $334 20h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 21h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Portugal 28¢ $57 21h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 35¢ $82 27h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 27h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 18¢ $44 27h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $41 27h
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 60¢ $88 27h
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes $4 33h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 19¢ $56 45h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $99 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $304 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY No 48¢ $24 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $388 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 77¢ $388 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 63¢ $74 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 70¢ $51 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 69¢ $40 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $51 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY Yes 86¢ $173 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $35 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $833.24 · official $833.25 (match) · 3500 history records