Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:54:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd3d…235f
sports · 604 markets active 3h ago
5.5score
+$287 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$283 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$174
Realized+$283
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses438 / 160
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions6
Markets (closed)598 / 604
History coverage600d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 6 History 598 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$167
7 days+$62
14 days+$0
30 days+$133
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) Spurs 85¢ 84¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Monte 71¢ 100¢ $20 $28 +$8 (+41%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 FUT Esports 54¢ 46¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-16%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 91¢ 90¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) FURIA 77¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Blues vs. Sabres Sabres 57¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner Liquid 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
BLAST Open: Spirit vs. G2 Spirit 75¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 28¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Euro Basket: Finland vs Serbia Serbia 94¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Liquid 66¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Rangers vs. Hurricanes Hurricanes 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Seahawks vs. Jaguars Jaguars 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Sabres vs. Bruins Sabres 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Fiorentina win on 2025-08-24? Yes 79¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
49ers vs. Rams Rams 80¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets Blue Jackets 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
TikTok sale announced in 2025? No 46¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Lions vs. Vikings Lions 76¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Blackhawks Ducks 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Stage 2 Fnatic 74¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) B8 54¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Vitality win the BLAST Open London 2025 tournament? Yes 64¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $51 +$33 +65%
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) Jun 12 $50 +$7 +13%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$11 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 11 $10 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $15 +$3 +20%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $15 +$7 +48%
1H Spread: Knicks (-10.5) Jun 11 $20 +$3 +16%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 11 $20 +$4 +18%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $20 +$5 +26%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $20 +$6 +31%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$8 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $30 +$3 +10%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 11 $40 +$4 +11%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $30 +$20 +65%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $40 +$19 +48%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 11 $101 +$53 +52%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 11 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 06 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Voca (BO5) - ESL Challenger League North Americ Jun 02 $10 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 29 $12 +$1 +10%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 29 $30 +$15 +48%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $30 +$18 +60%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) May 25 $30 +$4 +13%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline May 25 $40 +$21 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 24 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 24 $5 +$5 +101%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 24 $23 +$12 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 23 $22 −$22 -99%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Canadiens May 23 $11 +$5 +46%
Valorant: MIBR vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 23 $22 +$18 +83%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 1.5 May 17 $4 +$1 +17%
Karlsruher SC vs. VfL Bochum: O/U 2.5 May 17 $7 +$3 +38%
SV Darmstadt 98 vs. SC Paderborn 07: O/U 1.5 May 17 $9 +$1 +13%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 2.5 May 17 $19 +$11 +55%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 17 $19 −$19 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 17 $9 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $14 +$6 +40%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $27 +$6 +22%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$326
other 15% −$130
crypto 3% +$45
world 2% +$56
politics 2% $0
tech 1% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $51 2h
Spread: Knicks (-9.5) BUY Spurs 85¢ $60 2h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 54¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $10 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 87¢ $10 2h
Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) BUY Monte 71¢ $20 2h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $51 16h
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) BUY Hurricanes 88¢ $50 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 65¢ $20 27h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) BUY B8 54¢ $30 27h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Vitality 83¢ $15 27h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 71¢ $20 27h
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) BUY Spurs 89¢ $10 37h
1H Spread: Knicks (-10.5) BUY Spurs 86¢ $20 37h
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Legacy 79¢ $20 3d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 67¢ $40 3d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) BUY FUT Esports 76¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Spirit 90¢ $40 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY BetBoom Team 91¢ $30 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 67¢ $101 6d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY BIG 71¢ $20 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $30 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 65¢ $101 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sinners 28¢ $15 8d
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Heroic 84¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY B8 86¢ $10 9d
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Heroic 82¢ $20 9d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 67¢ $15 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +13.5% +2.7% 86% 82% -1.2%
≤30d 57 +8.3% -2.0% 77% 74% -0.2%
≤90d 66 +10.3% -0.2% 79% 76% +1.0%
all 598 -1.1% -10.5% 73% 65% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 65% -6.3%
10% -19.1% 43% -15.3%
15% -26.9% 26% -23.4%
20% -34.1% 14% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $174.15 · official $174.15 (match) · 1196 history records