Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:40:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FD 0xfd3a…9b03 politics 127 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate9%11W / 115L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$325per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$19
politics 34% −$17
sports 10% +$12
crypto 4% $0
tech 3% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 1% 0% -9.6%
all 126 +0.7% -8.9% 9% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×7.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses11 / 115
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)126 / 127
History coverage136d
Avg bet$325
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 126 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $41 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 21 $23 $0 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $282 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $315 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $672 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $487 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $193 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $229 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $1,103 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $289 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $275 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 15 $203 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $435 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 12 $745 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $267 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $867 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $360 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $515 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $225 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $214 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $466 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $513 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $280 −$1 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $280 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $250 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $222 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $278 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $215 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $204 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $446 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 26 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $264 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $262 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $275 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $254 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $279 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $719 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 17 $294 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 17 $300 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $816 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 16 $282 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in April? Apr 16 $287 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $41 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $41 9h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $23 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $28 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $43 4d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $43 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $48 23d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $48 24d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $215 26d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $215 27d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $270 27d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $270 28d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $228 28d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $228 28d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $193 28d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $193 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 28d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $229 30d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $285 30d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $285 32d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $244 33d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $244 34d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $289 34d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $289 35d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $275 36d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $275 36d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $203 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.99 · official $42.99 (match) · 417 history records