Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:30:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd3a…5acd other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,766 (-16%) realized −$1,766 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$696per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$2,270
culture 22% +$264
other 13% −$65
tech 9% +$55
world 4% +$428
crypto 2% −$200
sports 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +33.2% +20.5% 83% 67% +2.0%
≤30d 6 +33.2% +20.5% 83% 67% +2.0%
≤90d 6 +33.2% +20.5% 83% 67% +2.0%
all 16 +0.4% -9.2% 62% 50% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 50% -23.9%
10% -17.9% 44% -31.2%
15% -25.8% 44% -37.9%
20% -33.1% 25% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$209 vs −$645 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,766
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage590d
Avg bet$696
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $16 +$15 +92%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $105 −$46 -44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$42 +40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 +$15 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 09 $3,198 −$3,198 -100%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 30 $200 −$200 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? Apr 29 $1,216 −$86 -7%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 25 $500 +$428 +86%
Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $20 +$10 +48%
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? Mar 03 $2,380 +$254 +11%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $20 −$20 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $1,002 +$75 +8%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $319 −$319 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 07 $2,001 +$1,247 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $35 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $25 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 93¢ $30 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $16 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 47¢ $58 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $105 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $105 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 53¢ $21 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 2d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes $300 414d
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? SELL Yes 77¢ $1,131 414d
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? BUY Yes 83¢ $1,216 414d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 24¢ $898 423d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 33¢ $1,000 429d
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? BUY Yes 51¢ $1,000 449d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? BUY Yes 23¢ $200 471d
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? BUY Yes 54¢ $500 471d
Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 471d
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,634 471d
Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 471d
Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,380 471d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? BUY Yes $20 475d
Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? BUY Yes 93¢ $1,002 475d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 39¢ $319 589d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $2,001 589d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records