trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +33.2% | +20.5% | 83% | 67% | +2.0% |
| ≤30d | 6 | +33.2% | +20.5% | 83% | 67% | +2.0% |
| ≤90d | 6 | +33.2% | +20.5% | 83% | 67% | +2.0% |
| all | 16 | +0.4% | -9.2% | 62% | 50% | -23.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.2% | 50% | -23.9% |
| 10% | -17.9% | 44% | -31.2% |
| 15% | -25.8% | 44% | -37.9% |
| 20% | -33.1% | 25% | -44.0% |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will England win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $25 | +$10 | +38% |
| Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? | Jun 17 | $16 | +$15 | +92% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $105 | −$46 | -44% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $105 | +$42 | +40% |
| Will France win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 16 | $21 | +$15 | +70% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | Jun 15 | $1 | $0 | +3% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | May 09 | $3,198 | −$3,198 | -100% |
| Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? | Apr 30 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? | Apr 29 | $1,216 | −$86 | -7% |
| Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? | Mar 25 | $500 | +$428 | +86% |
| Will Adrien Brody win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 03 | $20 | +$10 | +48% |
| Will "Anora" win Best Picture at the 2025 Oscars? | Mar 03 | $2,380 | +$254 | +11% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Mar 03 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Will xAI have the top AI model on February 28? | Mar 03 | $1,002 | +$75 | +8% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $319 | −$319 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $2,001 | +$1,247 | +62% |