Wallet analysis

2026-06-30T00:24:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
FD 0xfd3a…1a0c sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$201 (+26%) realized +$201 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate47%17W / 19L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$159
sports 37% −$21
crypto 5% −$29
world 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -5.7% -14.6% 47% 42% +2.8%
≤30d 36 -5.7% -14.6% 47% 42% +2.8%
≤90d 36 -5.7% -14.6% 47% 42% +2.8%
all 36 -5.7% -14.6% 47% 42% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 42% +2.8%
10% -22.8% 36% -7.0%
15% -30.3% 33% -16.0%
20% -37.1% 31% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$10 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$201
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses17 / 19
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage5d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $81 −$80 -98%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $20 +$14 +66%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $20 +$22 +107%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $10 +$2 +20%
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$19 +93%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$40 +194%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $41 +$1 +3%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? Jun 28 $15 −$1 -9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 28 $10 −$3 -25%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $203 +$67 +33%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $21 −$19 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $10 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$6 +112%
Norway to score first vs. France? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $61 +$39 +64%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $15 −$6 -37%
Spain to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 27 $20 +$11 +52%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. France: Norway O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $20 +$12 +59%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $30 +$22 +73%
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 26 $9 +$25 +276%
Sweden to score first vs. Japan? Jun 25 $10 −$5 -45%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 25 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 18¢ $10 55m
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 25¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 25¢ $10 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 66¢ $51 1h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $34 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 97¢ $42 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 5h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 41¢ $12 6h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $39 6h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 8h
Brazil vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $20 9h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 96¢ $60 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 27h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 55¢ $19 27h
Canada leading at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 31h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 31h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 44h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 45h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? SELL Yes 49¢ $42 45h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 45h
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $14 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 36¢ $7 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 100¢ $175 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 57¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 50¢ $95 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 84 history records