Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:40:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd39…b292 other 110 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$61 (-0%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate9%10W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$42
politics 23% −$8
sports 12% −$9
crypto 6% −$1
tech 6% −$1
world 4% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 17% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 108 -3.8% -13.0% 9% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 1% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 72% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -8% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses10 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)108 / 110
History coverage130d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 108 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $130 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $266 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $220 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 25 $268 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $462 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $277 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 18 $216 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $215 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $795 −$1 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $221 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 16 $261 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in April? Apr 15 $214 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $215 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $199 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $265 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $201 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 13 $195 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 12 $201 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 12 $274 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $278 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,043 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $69 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 10 $230 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $224 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 08 $273 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $220 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $281 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $237 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $210 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $263 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 06 $283 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in April? Apr 06 $238 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 06 $222 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $525 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 05 $417 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 04 $233 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 2h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY No 100¢ $42 2h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $43 2d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $43 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 4d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $29 6d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 10d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 23d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 27d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $268 30d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $268 34d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 36d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 37d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $280 37d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $280 50d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $212 65d
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $212 66d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $277 67d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $277 67d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $216 67d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $216 67d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $267 67d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $267 68d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $215 68d
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $215 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.95 · official $72.95 (match) · 318 history records