Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:51:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FD 0xfd36…c98a other 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,268 (+16%) realized +$1,327 · open −$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%21W / 28L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$156per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$58est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$661
7 days+$566
14 days+$2,159
30 days+$2,694
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$918
sports 35% +$2,009
crypto 18% −$242
world 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +15.3% +4.3% 43% 43% +6.6%
≤30d 49 +11.2% +0.6% 43% 41% +22.4%
≤90d 49 +11.2% +0.6% 43% 41% +22.4%
all 49 +11.2% +0.6% 43% 41% +22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 41% +22.4%
10% -9.0% 41% +10.6%
15% -17.8% 41% -0.0%
20% -25.9% 39% -9.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$289 vs −$120 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$1,327
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses21 / 28
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage18d
Avg bet$156
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $160 $157 −$3 (-2%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 6¢ $70 $14 −$56 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $496 +$1,162 +234%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $257 −$251 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $406 −$400 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Jun 25 $254 +$506 +199%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $212 +$162 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$49 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$50 -96%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $51 +$166 +324%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $304 +$213 +70%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$232 +76%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$320 +105%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $102 +$5 +5%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $90 +$225 +249%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $93 −$90 -97%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $103 +$85 +83%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $95 −$93 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$268 +262%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $87 +$196 +226%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $103 +$681 +663%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $90 −$88 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $153 +$382 +249%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $153 −$150 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $186 −$182 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $910 +$994 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $77 +$54 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$70 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $102 +$43 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $103 +$64 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $206 +$133 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $72 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 25¢ $164 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,658 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $496 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $257 7h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $255 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $406 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $304 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $212 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 3d
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $409 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 33¢ $254 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $51 3d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $517 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 6d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 6d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $304 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $304 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $305 9d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $108 10d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $316 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $90 10d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $93 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.55 · official $175.55 · 83 history records