Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:41:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd36…a832 weather 492 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,022 (-10%) realized −$6,592 · open −$430
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%190W / 296L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$149per market
Trades / day47.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,117
7 days+$170
14 days−$2,075
30 days−$5,308
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% −$6,657
sports 1% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.5% -8.1% 53% 53% -8.3%
≤30d 150 -8.2% -16.9% 47% 46% -20.3%
≤90d 486 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 36% -17.4%
all 486 -6.6% -15.5% 39% 36% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 36% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.5% 32% -25.3%
15% -30.9% 27% -32.5%
20% -37.7% 25% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -4% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$123 vs −$100 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$2,702
Realized−$6,592
Unrealized−$430
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses190 / 296
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)486 / 492
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$149
Trades / day47.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 486 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $523 $506 −$17 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $472 $500 +$28 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $480 $440 −$39 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? Yes 47¢ 41¢ $440 $384 −$56 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? Yes 43¢ 49¢ $121 $137 +$17 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $363 $0 −$363 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $409 +$434 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $445 −$445 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? Jun 16 $511 +$453 +89%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $480 +$435 +91%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $522 +$419 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $523 −$523 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 15 $399 +$343 +86%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $542 −$542 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $441 −$441 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $486 −$486 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $199 +$179 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $434 +$342 +79%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $487 +$355 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $403 +$383 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $402 −$402 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $434 +$461 +106%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $376 +$319 +85%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $506 −$506 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $173 −$173 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 12 $407 −$407 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 11? Jun 12 $353 +$352 +100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 12 $441 −$441 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $328 −$328 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 10? Jun 11 $384 −$384 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $398 +$360 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 11 $388 −$388 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $439 +$396 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 10? Jun 11 $449 +$502 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 11 $529 +$384 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 11 $485 −$485 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 9? Jun 10 $534 −$534 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 9? Jun 10 $535 +$361 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 8? Jun 09 $468 +$373 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $469 +$520 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 8? Jun 09 $398 −$398 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 8? Jun 09 $447 −$447 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 7? Jun 08 $490 +$441 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 64-65°F on June 7? Jun 08 $474 +$397 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $343 +$407 +119%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 6? Jun 07 $561 −$561 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 5? Jun 06 $330 −$330 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 5? Jun 06 $329 +$365 +111%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 5? Jun 06 $367 −$367 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 5? Jun 06 $330 −$330 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 4? Jun 05 $186 −$186 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5? Jun 05 $347 −$309 -89%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4? Jun 05 $171 −$171 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 4? Jun 05 $358 −$357 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4? Jun 05 $351 −$351 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 4? Jun 04 $342 +$201 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 46¢ $36 48m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $70 51m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 17? BUY Yes 36¢ $19 52m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 18? BUY Yes 53¢ $483 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 52¢ $129 9h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $323 10h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 45¢ $266 13h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 39¢ $228 13h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY Yes 48¢ $536 15h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $47 21h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $28 22h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $25 27h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 53¢ $24 27h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $12 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $9 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $16 28h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $12 29h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,701.99 · official $2,716.80 (match) · 3500 history records