Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd33…d791 world 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12 (+2%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate47%14W / 16L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 49% −$4
other 26% −$1
crypto 9% −$5
politics 8% +$22
sports 4% $0
weather 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.2% -8.4% 14% 14% -8.8%
≤30d 16 -1.8% -11.1% 25% 6% -10.6%
≤90d 16 -1.8% -11.1% 25% 6% -10.6%
all 30 -1.6% -11.0% 47% 7% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 7% -8.0%
10% -19.5% 3% -16.8%
15% -27.3% 3% -24.8%
20% -34.4% 3% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 83% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses14 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage486d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $29 +$3 +11%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $58 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 -10%
Will Alberta join the US? May 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $4 $0 -8%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 27 $30 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $37 −$7 -19%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 26 $37 +$1 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +3%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $2 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Mar 30 $30 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Mar 24 $30 −$1 -2%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $77000 and $79000 on Mar 21? Mar 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 66°F or higher on March 22? Mar 21 $31 $0 -2%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 19? Mar 21 $31 $0 +1%
Will the CDU/CSU win 30-35% of the vote in the German election? Mar 20 $13 +$22 +170%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 74¢ $31 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $31 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $32 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $32 10h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $8 14h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $8 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $32 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $12 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $31 33h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $31 33h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $29 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $5 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $22 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $25 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $28 19d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $28 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $28 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $30 20d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $33 21d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $33 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 22d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 77 history records