Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:49:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd31…6103 other 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,423 (-47%) realized +$459 · open −$1,882
Gross ROI / mkt +100% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +74% what you keep after slip
Net edge+74%after slip
Net WR78%break-even
Win rate78%7W / 2L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$232per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 71% −$1,870
sports 26% +$535
other 3% +$115
world 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +78%
net ROI/market (all)+81.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +100.5% +81.4% 78% 78% +73.9%
≤30d 9 +100.5% +81.4% 78% 78% +73.9%
≤90d 9 +100.5% +81.4% 78% 78% +73.9%
all 9 +100.5% +81.4% 78% 78% +73.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +81.4% 78% +73.9%
10% +64.0% 78% +57.3%
15% +48.2% 67% +42.1%
20% +33.7% 56% +28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +92% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +100% · $-wt +92% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$18 · ×5.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.51 per $1 lost it wins $19.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized+$459
Unrealized−$1,882
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses7 / 2
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage9d
Avg bet$232
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $2,063 $194 −$1,868 (-91%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 12¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-22%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes $9 $4 −$5 (-59%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $255 +$242 +95%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $255 +$80 +31%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $111 +$245 +221%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 +$5 +177%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $22 +$84 +380%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $16 +$6 +41%
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $26 +$41 +160%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $9 31m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $31 32m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $196 58m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $51 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $497 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $255 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 2 DR Congo? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $335 2h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $255 3h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $356 42h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $8 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 38¢ $8 43h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 43h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $103 44h
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 80¢ $106 2d
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 2d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $22 2d
Will Mauricio Ruffy win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 69¢ $16 2d
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $67 2d
Will Diego Lopes win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 37¢ $26 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $26 2d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $299 6d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No $2 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 7d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 7d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes $1,447 8d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 13¢ $201 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 24¢ $201 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.95 · official $224.55 · 31 history records