Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd2a…a916
other · 40 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$93
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions29
Markets (closed)11 / 40
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 29 History 11 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31? No 90¢ 92¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 93¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
DOJ reopens Powell investigation by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Major CEX insolvent in 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 92¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
New "Stranger Things" episode released by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 07 $1 $0 +20%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 07 $1 $0 +31%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 07 $1 +$1 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $1 +$1 +107%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 05 $2 −$2 -97%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $2 $0 -3%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $4 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 30% $0
tech 16% $0
other 15% $0
crypto 14% $0
politics 10% $0
economics 8% $0
sports 6% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 100¢ $1 51m
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 2h
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 2d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 2d
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 89¢ $3 2d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 4d
Pluto reclassified as a planet by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $1 5d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $1 5d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 87¢ $1 5d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
New "Stranger Things" episode released by December 31? BUY No 94¢ $1 5d
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 5d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +43.4% +29.7% 100% 80% +29.9%
≤30d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 36% -12.4%
≤90d 11 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 36% -12.4%
all 11 +0.8% -8.8% 45% 36% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 36% -12.4%
10% -17.5% 27% -20.8%
15% -25.5% 18% -28.4%
20% -32.8% 18% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.43 · official $93.43 (match) · 150 history records