Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:02:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd28…449d
sports · 9 markets active 1h ago
8.5score
+$12,902 +55%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12,902 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$30
Realized+$12,902
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage600d
Avg bet$2,604
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit67%
Chart Positions 1 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$400
7 days+$400
14 days+$400
30 days+$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Switzerland 58¢ 58¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +66%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$126 +246%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $82 +$117 +143%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 06 $20,002 +$14,535 +73%
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? Nov 06 $2,999 −$2,118 -71%
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? Nov 02 $91 +$85 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 98% +$12,417
other 1% +$308
sports 1% +$177
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 58¢ $30 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $208 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $50 7h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $177 7h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $30 10h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 20h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 92¢ $198 25h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $82 32h
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $51 33h
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? SELL Yes 5¢ $300 584d
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $280 584d
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? SELL Yes 6¢ $301 584d
Will a Republican win Virginia Presidential Election? BUY Yes 19¢ $2,999 584d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 54¢ $9,998 586d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 587d
Will T1 win LoL Worlds 2024? BUY Yes 63¢ $50 587d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $9,997 599d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 62¢ $1 599d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 599d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +88%
net ROI/market (all)+71.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +124.4% +103.0% 100% 100% +105.5%
≤30d 5 +124.4% +103.0% 100% 100% +105.5%
≤90d 5 +124.4% +103.0% 100% 100% +105.5%
all 8 +89.7% +71.6% 88% 88% +40.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +71.6% 88% +40.3%
10% ← realistic here +55.2% 88% +26.9%
15% +40.2% 88% +14.7%
20% +26.5% 88% +3.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.26 · official $30.26 (match) · 23 history records