Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd20…4882
crypto · 73 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$125 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$125 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses31 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 73
History coverage59d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%
Chart Positions 0 History 74 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$47
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5 Under 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Up 40¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Down 69¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting? No 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Up 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Down 15¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 57¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$8 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -95%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$1 -6%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $25 −$15 -59%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $24 +$4 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $25 −$10 -41%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $23 −$23 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 07 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 07 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 07 $13 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 07 $5 +$2 +38%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners May 06 $15 −$9 -60%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $1 +$5 +468%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $7 +$17 +238%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 06 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 06 $13 −$12 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 06 $1 +$14 +1283%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 06 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 06 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 06 $4 +$5 +129%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 06 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 06 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 06 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET May 06 $7 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 06 $6 +$1 +11%
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? May 06 $1 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 30 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 30 $8 +$3 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 30 $9 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 30 $3 +$3 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 30 $7 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 30 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Apr 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Apr 30 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 30 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 30 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Apr 30 $15 +$2 +11%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 30 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 30 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 30 $14 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Apr 29 $15 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Apr 29 $3 −$1 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% −$77
sports 21% −$21
other 12% −$25
finance 1% −$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $24 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $25 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 91¢ $28 2h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $24 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 48¢ $15 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $24 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $25 4h
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 15d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $8 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $8 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $7 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $1 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $8 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $4 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $7 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 38d
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Atlanta Braves 16¢ $6 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -58.8% -62.7% 14% 14% -38.9%
≤30d 8 -63.9% -67.4% 12% 12% -50.1%
≤90d 74 -1.8% -11.2% 42% 38% -30.2%
all 74 -1.8% -11.2% 42% 38% -30.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 38% -30.2%
10% -19.7% 31% -36.9%
15% -27.4% 28% -43.0%
20% -34.5% 18% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 187 history records