Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd1d…e2a1 other 40 markets active 0h ago coverage 393d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+1%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%14W / 26L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$5
other 32% +$9
politics 11% $0
tech 7% $0
culture 4% −$1
sports 2% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.8% -8.8% 80% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 62% 0% -8.2%
≤90d 8 +1.5% -8.2% 62% 0% -8.2%
all 40 +4.0% -5.9% 35% 5% -8.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 5% -8.2%
10% -14.9% 5% -17.0%
15% -23.1% 5% -25.0%
20% -30.6% 5% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.25 per $1 lost it wins $4.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

393d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses14 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage393d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $84 +$2 +3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $26 +$2 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 10 $5 $0 -4%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 10 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jul 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jul 09 $32 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 04 $7 −$1 -19%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Jul 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 01 $23 +$1 +6%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 01 $6 $0 -5%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by less than 25,000 betw Jun 28 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +59%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jun 22 $13 $0 +0%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense before July? Jun 22 $13 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 21 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 19 $6 +$8 +121%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +1%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 02 $5 $0 +6%
Will the Gujarat Titans win the 2025 Indian Premier League? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tyrese Haliburton Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 28 $4 $0 -4%
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu be named the Champions League Final man of the m May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Edwards Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Alberto Undurraga win the Chilean presidential election? May 25 $23 $0 +0%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 24 $24 $0 -1%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 23 $24 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $33 7m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $0 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $30 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $34 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $24 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $9 22h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $0 22h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 37h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $8 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $32 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $32 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $32 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 73¢ $31 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $31 9d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $34 10d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $34 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $7 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $2 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $19 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $3 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $11 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 36¢ $12 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 25¢ $5 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 166 history records