Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:38:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd1b…aadf other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 319d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate29%17W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% −$1
other 29% $0
politics 23% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 4% $0
economics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.3% -9.3% 38% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 15 -1.0% -10.4% 27% 0% -9.7%
all 58 -0.7% -10.2% 29% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

319d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses17 / 41
Open positions1
Markets (closed)58 / 59
History coverage319d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 88¢ 88¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $32 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $32 +$1 +2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 15 $31 +$1 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $58 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $9 −$1 -17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $32 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $32 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Aug 18 $11 $0 +2%
Will the Cleveland Browns win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $1 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 17 $1 $0 -5%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 17 $3 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 17 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3300 in August? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 17 $47 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 17 $43 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Aug 16 $32 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 365–379 times August 8–August 15? Aug 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $5 $0 -4%
Will Raphinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 14 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will inflation reach more than 8% in 2025? Aug 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $2 $0 +7%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 12 $43 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 11 $48 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 10 $51 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 10 $7 $0 -0%
Will Barry Andrews win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 08 $51 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 88¢ $32 2h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 22¢ $6 4h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $6 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $11 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $20 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $6 13h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $6 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 83¢ $27 16h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $32 19h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $34 25h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $34 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 53¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 52¢ $26 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $9 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $25 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $14 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $24 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $24 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $7 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.68 · official $31.68 (match) · 205 history records