Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:31:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd1a…45a5
crypto · 370 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$25 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$27 · open +$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses239 / 129
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)368 / 370
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 2 History 368 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$15
14 days+$15
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 49¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+103%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Up 76¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +4%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 90% −$8
other 7% −$6
sports 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 46m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 47m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 47m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 55 +13.2% +2.4% 75% 44% +2.5%
≤30d 368 -1.6% -11.0% 65% 37% -12.6%
≤90d 368 -1.6% -11.0% 65% 37% -12.6%
all 368 -1.6% -11.0% 65% 37% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 37% -12.6%
10% -19.5% 29% -20.9%
15% -27.3% 28% -28.6%
20% -34.4% 28% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.59 · official $6.40 (match) · 756 history records