Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:53:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FD 0xfd18…ceb3 crypto 1044 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$199 (+1%) realized +$199 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate89%926W / 118L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day49.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$98
7 days+$98
14 days−$104
30 days−$696
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +7.5% -2.7% 100% 8% -2.7%
≤30d 562 -2.2% -11.5% 87% 28% -15.1%
≤90d 1044 +1.3% -8.3% 89% 38% -9.6%
all 1044 +1.3% -8.3% 89% 38% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 38% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 8% -18.2%
15% -25.1% 2% -26.1%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$199
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses926 / 118
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1044 / 1044
History coverage44d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day49.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1044 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $101 +$11 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 10 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $40 −$10 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 10 $111 −$100 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$12 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 10 $30 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 10 $20 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $116 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $110 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $89 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $18 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $51 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2590 history records