Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T10:55:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FD
0xfd17…c8f4
sports · 189 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$78 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$80 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$230
Realized+$80
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses104 / 68
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions17
Markets (closed)172 / 189
History coverage567d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 17 History 172 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 75¢ 74¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
LoL: Meavedron vs EXILE esports (BO5) - Hitpoint Masters Playoffs Meavedron 74¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Alliance 64¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
FC Drita vs. NK Celje: O/U 4.5 Under 78¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5 Over 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
FC Drita vs. NK Celje: O/U 3.5 Under 43¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BIG Academy vs mix52 (BO1) - PGL Bucharest: European Open Qualifier #2 Playoffs BIG Academy 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 $0 +21%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 +$4 +59%
Sydney FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5 Feb 21 $10 +$4 +45%
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition Feb 21 $14 $0 -3%
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $9 +$1 +9%
Spread: 76ers (-4.5) Feb 21 $10 $0 -3%
Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $9 $0 -5%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $7 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 21 $6 $0 +0%
Mantova 1911 vs. UC Sampdoria: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $6 $0 -2%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Feb 21 $5 $0 -2%
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-02-21? Feb 21 $5 $0 -2%
Go Ahead Eagles vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $5 −$1 -11%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-28? Feb 21 $5 $0 -3%
Melbourne City FC vs. Melbourne Victory FC: O/U 2.5 Feb 21 $10 −$6 -56%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-24? Feb 21 $18 $0 -1%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 1 Winner Feb 21 $5 −$4 -81%
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-02-22? Feb 20 $5 $0 -3%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Feb 20 $5 $0 -1%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-02-21? Feb 20 $5 $0 -0%
Valorant: sleepers vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America Playoffs Feb 20 $5 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner Feb 20 $5 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $10 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Pla Feb 20 $10 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 20 $10 $0 +0%
Rio Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Vilius Gaubas Feb 20 $5 $0 +1%
Mensik vs. Sinner: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Feb 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC end in a draw? Feb 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Delray Beach Open: Zachary Svajda vs Frances Tiafoe Feb 20 $5 +$3 +52%
KF Shkëndija 79 vs. Samsunspor: O/U 1.5 Feb 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Rio Open: Damir Dzumhur vs Jaime Faria Feb 20 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Feb 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Pacers vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5 Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Jagiellonia Białystok vs. ACF Fiorentina: O/U 2.5 Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Svajda (+1.5) Feb 19 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Panathinaikós AO win on 2026-02-19? Feb 19 $10 −$5 -50%
FC Drita vs. NK Celje: O/U 3.5 Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Omega vs WHITEBIRD (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group Feb 19 $10 +$8 +75%
FC Drita vs. NK Celje: O/U 4.5 Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Feb 19 $5 +$19 +371%
Nuggets vs. Clippers Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Vermont Catamounts vs. UMBC Retrievers Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Feb 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Metizport (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Pl Feb 19 $10 +$4 +45%
XRP Up or Down - February 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 19 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 19 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Feb 19 $20 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 19 $5 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 51% +$31
sports 37% +$63
other 11% −$5
world 1% $0
finance 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $4 1h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 14h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $6 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $16 14h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 47¢ $14 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 14h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $18 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $23 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 75¢ $15 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $14 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 14h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $32 14h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $14 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $12 14h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $24 14h
Sydney FC vs. Brisbane Roar FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $14 112d
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Edition SELL No 67¢ $13 112d
Will Sydney FC win on 2026-02-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 112d
Spread: 76ers (-4.5) SELL Pelicans 50¢ $10 112d
Karlsruher SC vs. Holstein Kiel: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 41¢ $8 112d
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $6 112d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs SELL MOUZ 63¢ $6 112d
Mantova 1911 vs. UC Sampdoria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $6 112d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? SELL Up 51¢ $5 112d
Will Charlotte FC win on 2026-02-21? SELL No 64¢ $5 112d
Go Ahead Eagles vs. Heracles Almelo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 39¢ $4 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +40.0% +26.7% 100% 100% +39.0%
≤30d 2 +40.0% +26.7% 100% 100% +39.0%
≤90d 2 +40.0% +26.7% 100% 100% +39.0%
all 172 -3.8% -13.0% 60% 37% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 37% -7.1%
10% -21.3% 27% -16.0%
15% -28.9% 23% -24.1%
20% -35.9% 11% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.75 · official $229.76 (match) · 473 history records