Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd17…d3ab sports 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$271 (-28%) realized −$271 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%15W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$237
sports 38% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 37% -37.6%
≤30d 41 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 37% -37.6%
≤90d 41 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 37% -37.6%
all 41 -23.4% -30.7% 37% 37% -37.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 37% -37.6%
10% -37.3% 34% -43.6%
15% -43.4% 29% -49.0%
20% -48.9% 24% -54.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +30% → late -74% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$271
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses15 / 26
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage7d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 47¢ 46¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 67¢ 68¢ $7 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $81 +$37 +46%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +27%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $13 −$12 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $80 −$79 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $15 +$14 +91%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$2 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 +$42 +83%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +24%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$17 +109%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $10 +$6 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $9 +$8 +90%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$35 +344%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 13 $39 +$6 +16%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $20 +$15 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$26 +197%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $30 −$5 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 47¢ $41 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $8 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 67¢ $8 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 25¢ $10 11h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 22h
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $121 31h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 62¢ $10 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 62¢ $10 32h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $20 32h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 34h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 30¢ $5 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 36h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $10 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 38h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 46¢ $10 38h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $20 39h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $7 45h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 45h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 45h
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 45h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 45h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $80 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 99¢ $29 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Over 47¢ $13 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $15 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.58 · official $54.58 (match) · 71 history records