Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd16…0be8 sports 268 markets active 0h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,106 (-1%) realized −$4,337 · open +$231
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate58%148W / 105L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,304per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$334est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$7,189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,314
7 days+$211
14 days+$213
30 days−$2,411
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$2,381
politics 20% −$5,158
crypto 12% +$182
sports 11% +$1,179
economics 9% −$531
tech 4% −$67
world 3% −$2,825
finance 1% +$92
culture 0% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +6.6% -3.6% 62% 27% -8.9%
≤30d 46 +4.5% -5.5% 61% 28% -16.4%
≤90d 92 -4.3% -13.4% 55% 27% -16.7%
all 253 +0.1% -9.5% 58% 32% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 32% -10.4%
10% -18.1% 22% -18.9%
15% -26.0% 17% -26.8%
20% -33.3% 13% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$188 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$7,189
Realized−$4,337
Unrealized+$231
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses148 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$334
Open positions15
Markets (closed)253 / 268
History coverage446d
Avg bet$1,304
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 253 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 88¢ 95¢ $3,520 $3,800 +$280 (+8%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $921 $926 +$5 (+1%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $820 $820 +$0 (+0%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $858 $806 −$51 (-6%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $430 $439 +$9 (+2%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $181 $181 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $129 $120 −$9 (-7%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $12 $10 −$1 (-12%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$1 (+57%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $766 −$99 -13%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $7 +$3 +37%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $360 −$18 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,023 −$373 -36%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $82 +$18 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $330 −$99 -30%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1,200 $0 +0%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 16 $38 +$2 +4%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $492 −$64 -13%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 16 $144 −$17 -12%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $40 +$5 +12%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $136 −$135 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,013 −$479 -47%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 15 $248 −$66 -27%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $191 +$4 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $421 −$131 -31%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $60 +$61 +101%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $560 +$20 +4%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $552 +$8 +2%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 +$8 +21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,825 +$56 +3%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,650 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $60 +$40 +67%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,695 −$15 -1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$3 +47%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,783 +$20 +1%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $130 +$10 +8%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $286 +$24 +8%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $286 +$714 +250%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $12,669 +$667 +5%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$7 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $111 −$48 -43%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 09 $119 +$2 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $57 +$16 +28%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $79 −$4 -4%
UFC Fight Night: Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tallison Teixeira (Heavyweight, May 30 $14 −$2 -13%
UFC Fight Night: Alex Perez vs. Sumudaerji (Flyweight, Main Card) May 30 $43 +$11 +26%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh May 30 $30 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31? May 22 $82 −$10 -12%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 21 $67 +$22 +32%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 20 $2,709 −$2,658 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $2,015 −$1,899 -94%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $1,151 −$175 -15%
Will Trump say "Covid" or "Pandemic" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $6 +$1 +18%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $44 +$6 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 18m
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 42m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 42m
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 43m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $27 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $68 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $28 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $4 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 1h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 69¢ $342 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 49¢ $241 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $650 2h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1,023 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 3h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $231 7h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $39 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $198 22h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $360 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $6 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $49 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $350 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,189.30 · official $7,189.30 (match) · 2710 history records