Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd11…67b1 sports 187 markets active 0h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$495 (+5%) realized +$554 · open −$59
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%114W / 70L
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days+$68
14 days+$68
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$449
other 2% +$44
politics 1% −$45
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +13.2% +2.4% 70% 60% +5.7%
≤30d 47 +0.4% -9.1% 70% 62% -9.6%
≤90d 184 +1.1% -8.5% 62% 54% -4.6%
all 184 +1.1% -8.5% 62% 54% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 54% -4.6%
10% -17.2% 40% -13.7%
15% -25.2% 25% -22.1%
20% -32.6% 17% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$28 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$554
Unrealized−$59
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses114 / 70
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions3
Markets (closed)184 / 187
History coverage38d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 184 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ 71¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ 56¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+5%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $41 +$41 +101%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $37 +$33 +89%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$18 +21%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $61 +$30 +50%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$13 -66%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $26 +$14 +54%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $15 +$5 +32%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $29 −$29 -99%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $28 +$1 +3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 −$32 -53%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 21 $7 −$7 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina May 21 $5 +$2 +36%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro May 21 $4 +$1 +22%
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group May 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $5 +$1 +17%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 21 $3 +$1 +21%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 207.5 May 21 $6 +$2 +34%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO - Map 2 Winner May 20 $4 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 2 Winner May 20 $3 +$1 +34%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $5 −$2 -43%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $5 $0 +3%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $5 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner May 20 $7 −$7 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 20 $6 +$1 +19%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs TYLOO (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $151 −$150 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 May 20 $114 +$48 +42%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch S May 19 $251 −$110 -44%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $51 +$26 +52%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Clement Tabur May 19 $101 +$23 +23%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 19 $81 +$22 +27%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $41 +$37 +91%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner May 18 $90 +$17 +18%
Istanbul: Maxim Mrva vs Jonas Forejtek May 18 $65 −$65 -99%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 18 $61 −$60 -99%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 18 $292 +$58 +20%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs megoshort (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe May 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 18 $96 +$58 +61%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner May 18 $73 +$35 +49%
Hamburg European Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Alex de Minaur May 18 $110 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eur May 18 $166 +$43 +26%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Corentin Moutet May 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Bengaluru 3: Dominik Palan vs Kokoro Isomura May 18 $86 +$8 +9%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Gro May 18 $45 +$14 +30%
Hamburg European Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli May 18 $51 −$50 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Kiwoom DRX Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal May 18 $50 +$10 +20%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 18 $40 +$9 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leagu May 18 $61 +$43 +70%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 216.5 May 18 $71 −$70 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $181 +$17 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 201.5 May 18 $101 +$54 +53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 54¢ $51 19m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 92¢ $100 48m
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $82 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 53¢ $39 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 49¢ $41 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $69 2h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 52¢ $37 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $85 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 13h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $61 14h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Vitality 100¢ $41 15h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Vitality 64¢ $26 15h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 75¢ $15 24h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 79¢ $29 26h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu SELL Chenting Zhu 100¢ $29 27h
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu BUY Chenting Zhu 97¢ $28 28h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 29¢ $28 36h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $61 37h
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 71¢ $4 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 71¢ $3 26d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina SELL Jaqueline Cristian 100¢ $7 26d
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Jaqueline Cristian vs Daria Kasatkina BUY Jaqueline Cristian 73¢ $5 26d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $5 26d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Gro BUY TheMongolz 81¢ $4 26d
Counter-Strike: Lynn Vision vs NIP (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group BUY NIP 60¢ $5 27d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B SELL Liquid 84¢ $6 27d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A SELL MOUZ 100¢ $4 27d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs MOUZ (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A BUY MOUZ 82¢ $3 27d
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B BUY Liquid 71¢ $5 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.03 · official $124.51 · 455 history records