Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FD 0xfd0e…cdf0 sports 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$189 (-29%) realized −$189 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%7W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$170
other 7% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -5.2% -14.2% 43% 43% -25.2%
≤30d 21 -10.7% -19.2% 33% 33% -33.1%
≤90d 23 -18.4% -26.2% 30% 30% -35.0%
all 23 -18.4% -26.2% 30% 30% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 30% -35.0%
10% -33.3% 26% -41.2%
15% -39.7% 26% -46.9%
20% -45.6% 22% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -60% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$22 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$189
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses7 / 16
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)23 / 23
History coverage71d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 23 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $35 +$13 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $33 +$34 +104%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $43 −$4 -9%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 −$12 -23%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $55 +$31 +56%
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $34 +$27 +80%
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $16 −$16 -98%
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 May 31 $44 −$44 -100%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $6 +$29 +491%
Burgos CF vs. FC Andorra: O/U 1.5 May 31 $32 −$32 -100%
CD Limache vs. CD Coquimbo Unido: O/U 2.5 May 31 $36 −$6 -18%
Real Racing Club vs. Cádiz CF: O/U 2.5 May 31 $17 −$17 -98%
Czechia vs. Kosovo: O/U 4.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Vasteraas SK vs. IFK Goteborg end in a draw? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 1.5 May 31 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Ehime FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $39 −$39 -100%
Vissel Kōbe vs. Kashima Antlers: O/U 3.5 May 30 $21 +$29 +138%
Will Rosenborg BK win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5 May 24 $8 +$2 +22%
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 4.5 Apr 11 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC end in a draw? Apr 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 48¢ $47 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $35 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 84¢ $67 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $9 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $20 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under $2 4h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 40¢ $39 23h
UD Almería vs. Málaga CF: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 43¢ $43 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $39 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 24h
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 59¢ $118 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 72¢ $36 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $55 3d
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $0 15d
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $4 15d
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $25 15d
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 61¢ $32 15d
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 34¢ $32 15d
FC Mito Holly Hock vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $1 15d
FC Tōkyō vs. Cerezo Ōsaka: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $16 15d
SE Palmeiras vs. Associação Chapecoense de Futebol: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 11¢ $44 20d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 20d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes $6 20d
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? BUY Yes $0 20d
Burgos CF vs. FC Andorra: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $32 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 50 history records