Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FD 0xfd0e…9884 sports 17 markets active 9h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$21,664 (+18%) realized +$21,664 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%9W / 8L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7,175per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$1,685est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$22,256
other 20% −$2,026
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% +5.6%
≤30d 17 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% +5.6%
≤90d 17 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% +5.6%
all 17 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% +5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 53% +5.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 53% -4.5%
15% -27.8% 53% -13.8%
20% -34.9% 41% -22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +17% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$10,183) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7,148 vs −$5,512 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$21,664
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses9 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$1,685
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7,175
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30,387 +$22,245 +73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10,186 +$5,237 +51%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,015 +$946 +93%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13,651 +$8,074 +59%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $10,161 +$11,365 +112%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $1,002 −$1,000 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10,178 −$10,000 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10,132 −$10,000 -99%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,010 +$483 +48%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $11,185 −$11,000 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10,183 +$15,458 +152%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10,131 −$10,000 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $304 +$148 +49%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $305 +$374 +123%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $10,129 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $20,258 9h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 59¢ $15,423 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10,186 27h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 51¢ $1,015 34h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $397 45h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 93¢ $1,002 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10,161 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1,024 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $9,577 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $11,751 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $13,651 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $10,178 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $10,132 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Haiti 67¢ $1,010 3d
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1,024 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,017 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $10,168 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $10,131 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 39¢ $10,183 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 41¢ $102 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $101 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $102 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $102 4d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Paraguay 78¢ $101 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records